Background: United States Estimated Displacement Risk (USEDR)

United States
Estimated Displacement Risk Model

The USEDR provided a foundation for the original Housing Precarity Risk Model (1.0). Please see the new HPRM 2.0 page.

The USEDR is a national estimation of displacement for the entire U.S. The initial modeling procedure estimate displacement within U.S. sub-regions (e.g., West South Central, Pacific West, Northeast Mid-Atlantic).

State & regional revisions (June 21, 2023)

After the first model iteration, some of the regions, particularly the East South Central, had too few datapoints to derive an appropriate prediction model. Looking for alternatives Tim Thomas came across the “State Similarity Index” (Download).

The State Similarity Index attempts to quantify how similar American states are to each other relative to other states. For example, one might intuitively know that West Virginia is more like Alabama than Alaska but less like West Virginia than Kentucky. The index is a statistically-based way to measure this. The index weights equally five major aspects of states: their demographics, culture, politics, infrastructure, and geography. The research combines more than 1,000 different data points. The following paragraphs explain the exact criteria for the index more in depth:

Based on these criteria, Objective Lists created their own regional map, which we will use in our model (read more about how this regional map compares to other regional maps).

Our new state model will break up the country like this:
(Note: the original article broke up some states into western/eastern or northern/southern state divisions. We will stick with one state in the most relevant region)

Midwest

— Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri

Northeast

— Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont

South

South Central

— Texas, Oklahoma

Southeast

— Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Florida

West

Mountain

— Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico

Pacific

— Oregon, Washington, California

State & regional revisions 2 (June 27, 2023)

While the first revision was well intended, it created groups with over 80 million cases. The westpacific group had over 51 million people and worked, so Tim broke up the country into groups between 33 and 53 million:

midwestgreatlakes Pop Total
Illinois 12,812,508 53,075,027
Ohio 11,799,448
Michigan 10,077,331
Indiana 6,785,528
Wisconsin 5,893,718
Minnesota 5,706,494
northeastnewengland Pop Total
New York 20,201,249 35,317,454
Massachusetts 7,029,917
Connecticut 3,605,944
Rhode Island 1,097,379
New Hampshire 1,377,529
Maine 1,362,359
Vermont 643,077
northeastpennwash Pop Total
Pennsylvania 13,002,700 38,779,804
New Jersey 9,288,994
Maryland 6,177,224
Delaware 989,948
District of Columbia 689,545
Virginia 8,631,393
southatlantic Pop Total
Florida 21,538,187 47,807,908
Georgia 10,711,908
North Carolina 10,439,388
South Carolina 5,118,425
southcentral Pop Total
Texas 29,145,505 33,104,858
Oklahoma 3,959,353
southdeep Pop Total
Tennessee 6,910,840 35,020,144
Alabama 5,024,279
Louisiana 4,657,757
Kentucky 4,505,836
Mississippi 2,961,279
West Virginia 1,793,716
Arkansas 3,011,524
Missouri 6,154,913
westmountainmidwest Pop Total
Iowa 3,190,369 34,674,664
Kansas 2,937,880
Nebraska 1,961,504
South Dakota 886,667
North Dakota 779,094
Colorado 5,773,714
Utah 3,271,616
Idaho 1,839,106
Montana 1,084,225
Wyoming 576,851
Arizona 7,151,502
Nevada 3,104,614
New Mexico 2,117,522
westpacific Pop Total
California 39,538,223 51,480,760
Washington 7,705,281
Oregon 4,237,256